We are in the age of Do-It-Yourself efforts. Works great in some areas and activities, not so much in others. You can buy a hair trimming kit and cut your own or others' hair, with varying degrees of success. You can wax your own legs. You can build your own birdhouse, or even a Japanese beetle trap (I am told). You can watch the New Yankee Workshop and build something useful for your home if you have highly sophisticated machinery and nimble hands. If you get it wrong, you might waste a few hundred dollars of lumber…
Buying or selling a home is not a do-it-yourself job, just as pulling your own tooth or removing your appendix is not. I know you doctors and dentists are cringing at this point. I mention the latter two pieces of professional work to make it obvious to the individuals who might be the most self-assured. Some things are best left to professionals.
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July 2012 Zestimate and Actual Sale[/caption]
In my career as
Realtor in Orange County I have come across many a home buyer who readily pulls out
Zillow's Zestimate and tries to justify his or her opinion of market value for a home when writing an offer. Funny enough, they never write offers based on Zillow's HIGH Zestimate, only the posted lowball values! Sadly, I have had more than one buyer lose a good house because a friend or relative second-guessed a solid market analysis and the proposed offer price.Hey, they argue, Zillow Zestimate says it is worth 25,000 less.
I decided to do my own research of
Zillow Zestimate accuracy, because for some buyers, if I tell them Zillow is wrong, they don't believe until they see it, and that is usually after the closed sale to another buyer. I have accumulated Listing,
Zestimate and SOLD data over the period of about five weeks during July/August 2012 for the city of Irvine. It's a small sample, but I venture to state that in Orange County, it is a representation of what the facts are. The variance of
Zestimates vs. actual Sales Prices runs from Zestimate undervalued by -21.25% to overvalued by +35.16%. How would you like to be the buyer who assumes a home is worth 35% more than what it will sell for? On the flip side of the coin, picture the buyer who writes an offer based on the perception of the more than 20% lowball Zestimate, only to be beaten by the
realistic and savvy home buyer who lets his real estate agent guide him in the actual market situation. I know that
Zestimates are generated by a computer who has no idea of location, condition and upgrades. Zillow properly inserts a disclaimer that the
Zestimate is not an appraisal. Of course, consumers take away the tidbit that justifies their preferred position, no fault of Zillow.
Zillow will continue to post Zestimates; it's what brings visitors to its site and generates income through auxiliary services. The wild numbers are of some entertainment value and occasional annoyance to real estate agents but also a source of confusion for home buyers. In a changing market, whether it's going up or down, having up-to-date real-life information is crucial. When you want to
buy a home in Irvine and greater Orange County, you might want to hire a live real estate agent and listen to the market analysis she offers.
For copies of the actual analysis spreadshett, please contact me via phone or email.
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Real Estate Matchmaker[/caption]